Drafting a highly thought of prospect who never turns out has got to be one of the most frustrating experiences for a sports organization, despite its frequency. (It’s certainly very frustrating for us fans.)
Note: This post has not been updated since it was posted in 2014 and the stats of some of the “busts?” have improved in the interim.
So I wonder if there is any way of actually avoiding doing so, without going to see the players in person, given that the amateur leagues around the world don’t exactly provide consistent reliable data – and given the huge variances from league to league in terms of schedule-length, scoring, competitiveness and other factors.
So I figured I would look at the draft busts for the past 20 years to see if there were any obvious lessons. However, the axiom in hockey is that ‘one should not evaluate a draft until at least 5 years have passed.’ This is because sometimes players can take a long time to turn into stars. It might be a little too long to evaluate most forward prospects, but it’s not too long for goalies and D. I’d say it’s close enough to a happy medium.
I am only going to focus on Top 5 picks because it is usually only those players who are seen as nearly guaranteed – whether they are viewed merely as potential all-stars, or as once-in-a-generation level talents.
All rankings are relative to the draft year. Time on Ice information, where provided, is since the 1998-99 season.
Busts
Dave Chyzowski, LW, #2 overall, 1989 – Islanders
Why He’s a Bust:
- Chyzowski is 59th in games, 56th in goals, 62nd in assists, and 61st in points.
- 82 game average: 10G, 11A for 21P, -19
- Chyzowski was drafted immediately ahead of Scott Thornton, Stu Barnes and Bill Guerin. Other players drafted below him of note:
- Holik (10th),
- Sillinger (11th),
- Kolzig (19th),
- Foote (22nd),
- Lidstrom (53rd),
- Draper (62nd),
- Reichel (70th), F
- edorov (74th),
- Bure (113th)
- and others.
Why Was He Taken 2nd?
The year prior to the draft, Chyzowski scored 132 points in 84 WHL games, but the reason was likely the points plus the 171 PIM.
Is There a Lesson?
Penalty minutes are not necessarily an indication of “power forwardness.”
Scott Thornton, LW, #3 overall, 1989 – Maple Leafs
Why He’s a Bust:
- Thornton is 13th in games, 15th in goals, 38th in assists, and 21st in points.
- 82-gane average: 12G, 12A for 25P, -11.
- Thornton was drafted ahead of the same people as Chyzowski.
Why Was He Taken 3rd?
I’m not sure actually as he was not even a point-per-game player in the OHL – though he put up 62 points in 59 games with 103 PIM! – the season prior to the draft. It’s hard to see why he went as high as he did.
Oh wait, I know why: the Leafs drafted him.
Is There a Lesson?
Yes, stop valuing penalty minutes. Taking penalties is actually bad.
Pat Falloon, RW, #2 1991 – Sharks
Why He’s a Bust:
- Falloon is 37th in games, 21st in goals, 26th in assists, 22nd in points.
- 82 game average: 21G, 25A for 46P.
- Falloon was drafted immediately ahead of Scott Niedermayer, Scott Lachance and Aaron Ward. Other notable players drafted below Falloon:
- Forsberg (6th),
- Rolston (11th),
- Kovalev (15th),
- Markus Naslund (16th),
- Glenn Murray (18th),
- Whitney (23rd),
- Palffy (26th),
- Staios (27th),
- Stumpel (40th),
- Michael Nylander (59th),
- Knuble (76th),
- Zhitnik (81st),
- O’Donnell (123rd).
Why He Was Taken 2nd?
The season prior to the draft Falloon scored 162 points in 76 WHL games.
Is There a Lesson?
Whitney, who was taken 23rd, scored 216 points in 87 WHL games that same season for the same team. Perhaps the lesson is, when in doubt, choose the higher scoring player. But I’m sure more than one counter-example is out there.
Todd Warriner, LW, #4 1992 – Nordiques
Why He’s a Bust:
- Warriner is 38th in games, 28th in goals, 35th in assists, 35th in points.
- 82-game average: 11G, 16A for 28P, -7.
- Warriner was drafted immediately ahead of Darius Kasparaitis and Cory Stillman. Other notable players drafted below Warriner:
- Gonchar (14th),
- Yelle (17th),
- Jason Smith (18th),
- Straka (19th),
- Peca (40th),
- Maltby (65th),
- Lehtinen (88th),
- Adrian Aucoin (117th),
- Laperriere (158th)
- yes it was a very weak draft year.
Why Was He Taken 4th?
Well, aside from it being an epically weak draft year – Lehtinen is probably the only borderline HOFer in the draft – I can think of no really good reason, as Warriner scored 92 points in 57 games, which is hardly earth-shattering in terms of CHL numbers, but hardly “bust” indicative either.
Is There a Lesson?
Maybe the lesson is that some years it is actually better to trade away your pick if you’re not getting the first couple players (Hamrlik and Yashin in this case). Maybe the lesson is to have scouts in Europe when the Canadian ranks are this slim.
Alexandre Daigle, C, #1 1993 – Senators
Why He’s a Bust
Well, he’s perhaps the most famous bust in NHL history because…
- Daigle is 33rd in games, 24th in goals, 27th in assists, 26th in points.
- 82-game average: 17G, 26A for 43P, -23
Daigle was drafted immediately ahead of Chris Pronger and he said “I’m glad I got drafted first, because no one remembers number 2”, which is probably why he’s so infamous. Other notable players drafted below Daigle: - Gratton (3rd),
- Kariya (4th),
- Rob Niedermayer (5th),
- Viktor Kozlov (6th),
- Arnott (7th),
- Kenny Johnsson (12th),
- Deadmarsh (14th),
- Allison (17th),
- Saku Koivu (21st),
- Bertuzzi (23rd),
- Langenbrunner (35th),
- Brendan Morrison (39th),
- McCabe (40th),
- Prospal (71st),
- Satan (111th),
- Marchant (164th),
- Brunette (174th),
- Gill (207th),
- Grier (219th),
- Demitra (227th),
- Timonen (250th)
- and many more.
Why Was He Taken 1st?
Daigle had scored 137 points in 53 Q games the season prior to the draft, and 110 points in his rookie Q season. So he was expected to be the next star in the NHL. However, it should be noted that as recently as 1988 Patrice Lefebvre – who went undrafted – had scored 200 points in a Q season.
Is There a Lesson?
Money spoils everything!
Also, personality is a factor in athletic development.
Also, just because a guy lights up the Q at 18 does not automatically mean he will light up the NHL later.
Chris Gratton, C, #3 1993 – Lightning
Why He’s a Bust
- Gratton is 12th in games and goals, 14th in assists, 13th in points.
- 82 game average: 16G, 26A for 43P, -1
- Gratton was drafted ahead of the same players as Daigle, aside from Pronger.
Why Was He Taken 3rd?
In the season prior to the draft, Gratton scored 138 points in 74 OHL games, adding 167 PIM.
Is There a Lesson?
As always, don’t overvalue penalty minutes.
That being said, nearly 2 points per game in the O is significantly more impressive, in my mind, than Daigle’s over 2.5 PPG in the Q, as the Q has traditionally been a higher scoring league. Was the O just easier to dominate in the early ’90s?
Jason Bonsignore, C, #4 1994 – Oilers
Why He’s a Bust
- Bonsignore is 87th in games, 79th in goals, 75th in assists, 74th in points.
- Bonsignore did not play 82 games in the NHL.
- Bonsignore was drafted immediately ahead of Jeff O’Neill (5th) and Ryan Smyth (6th). Other notable players drafted below Bonsignore:
- Friesen (11th),
- Ohlund (13th),
- Elias (51st),
- Modin (64th),
- Drury (72nd),
- Hejduk (87th),
- Alfredsson (133rd),
- Steve Sullivan (233rd),
- Holmstrom (257th)
Why Was He Taken 4th?
Bonsignore scored 216 points over 191 OHL games (both prior to and after he was drafted) but he played those 191 games over 4 seasons.
Is There a Lesson Here?
Don’t draft perennially injured players if you don’t have to.
Aki Berg, D, #3 1995 – Kings
Why He’s a Bust:
- Berg is 21st in games, 41st in goals, 31st in assists, 33rd in points.
- 82-game average: 2G, 10A for 11P, -2; 16:06 ATOI
- Notable players drafted below Berg:
- Langkow (5th),
- Doan (7th),
- Dvorak (10th),
- Iginla (11th),
- Sykora (18th),
- Marc Savard (91st),
- Handzus (101st).
Why Was He Taken 3rd?
Berg was the youngest player to ever make it to the Finnish Elite League (at the time). And he had hype: and I quote, Berg “[Hits] like Scott Stevens and [skates] like Paul Coffey.”
Is There a Lesson Here?
Play in one league doesn’t always translate to another.
Also, NHL scouts in Europe used to be terrible.
Chad Kilger, LW, #4 1995 – Ducks
Why He’s a Bust
- Kilger is 16th in games, 11th in goals, 23rd in assists, 21st in points.
- 82-game average: 12G, 13A for 25P, -5
- Kilger was drafted ahead of the same players as Berg was.
Why Was He Taken 4th?
105 points in 70 games in the OHL the season before he was drafted.
Is There a Lesson Here?
If an 18 year (Kilger) old is dominating more than a 17 year old (Iggy), you might want to factor in their ages when evaluating their prospect status.
Also, Kilger was not even the leading scorer on his team. Might want to think about that too.
Andrei Zyuzin, D, #2 1996 – Sharks
Why He’s a Bust
- Zyuzin is 35th in games, 36th in goals, 34th in assists, 36th in points.
- 82-game average: 7G, 14A for 20P, -7; 18:16 ATOI
- Zyuzin was drafted immediately ahead of J.P. Dumont. Other notable players drafted below Zyuzin:
- Derek Morris (13th),
- Zubrus (15th),
- Sturm (21st),
- Briere (24th),
- Matt Cullen (35th),
- Chara (56th),
- Parrish (79th),
- Kubina (179th),
- Kaberle (204th).
Why Was He Taken 2nd?
Honestly, I have no idea. Bad European scouting is my only guess.
Is There a Lesson Here?
Don’t draft players you don’t know anything about.
Alexandre Volchkov, C, #4 1996 – Capitals
Why He’s a Bust
- Volchkov played 3 NHL games in his career.
- Volchkov was drafted above the same players as Zyuzin, save Dumont.
Why Was He Taken 4th?
Volchkov scored 64 points in 47 OHL games the season before the draft, which led his team even though he missed 19 games.
Is There a Lesson Here?
The best player on a bad team is not necessarily a star player.
Ric Jackman, D, #5 1996 – Stars
Why He’s a Bust
- Jackman is 48th in games, 45th in goals, 37th in assists, 41st in points.
- 82-game average: 7G, 21A for 27P, -19
- Jackman was drafted immediately ahead of Boyd Devereaux and Erik Rasmussen and ahead of the same players as Zyuzin and Volchkov.
Why Was He Taken 5th?
Jackman had 42 points and 97 PIM in 66 OHL games the season before the draft.
Is There a Lesson Here?
Once again, PIM are stupid.
Bryan Allen, D, #4 1998 – Canucks
Why He’s a Bust
- Allen is 23rd in games, 42nd in goals, 31st in assists, 35th in points.
- 82-game average: 3G, 12A for 16P, +3; 18:41 ATOI
- Allen was drafted above
- Tanguay (12th),
- Regehr (19th),
- Simon Gagne (22nd),
- Gomez (27th),
- Fisher (44th),
- Ribeiro (45th),
- Brad Richards (64th),
- Erik Cole (71st),
- Gionta (82nd),
- Andrei Markov (162nd),
- Datsuyk (171st),
- Ryder (216th).
Why Was He Taken 4th?
Allen put up 126 PIM in 48 OHL games the season prior to the draft. Also, Brian Burke drafted him.
Is There a Lesson Here?
Yes!!! For chrissake stop valuing PIM!!!
Vitaly Vishnevski, D, #5 1998 – Ducks
Why He’s a Bust
- Vishnevski is 30th in games, 49th in goals, 42nd in assists, 46th in points.
- 82-game average: 2G, 7A for 10P, -4; 16:44 ATOI
- Vishnovski was drafted above the same players as Allen.
Why Was He Taken 5th?
I can’t find his numbers from prior to the 1998-99 Russian Elite League season, but I bet he had a lot of PIM. (He did in 1999.)
Is there a Lesson Here?
See Bryan Allen.
Also, bad European scouting.
Patrik Stefan, C, #1 1999 – Thrashers
Why He’s a Bust
Stefan is the other notorious bust because…
- Stefan is 25th in games, 15th in goals, 17th in assists, 15th in points (in a shitty draft!)
- 82-game average: 11G, 22A for 34P, -6
- Stefan was drafted immediately ahead of the Sedins. Other notable players drafted below Stefan:
- Tim Connolly (5th),
- Taylor Pyatt (8th),
- Havlat (26th),
- Erat (191st),
- Zetterberg (210th),
- Vrbata (212th);
- This was a terrible draft.
Why Was He Taken 1st?
This is perhaps the most classic case of NHL teams not scouting a player and / or not understanding the differences between leagues. For the full story, see this excellent write-up.
The short version is that there was absolutely no reason to draft him 1st overall, even in such a weak draft year. His numbers prior to getting drafted:
- 9 points in 32 Czech league games
- 50 points in 58 IHL games
Somebody was smoking something.
Is there a Lesson Here?
The only lesson is that sometimes human beings are subject to collective hysteria.
Pavel Brendl, RW, #4 1999 – Rangers
Why He’s a Bust
- Brendl is 59th in games, 43rd in goals, 56th in assists, 51st in points.
- Brendl did not play 82 games in the NHL.
- Brendl was drafted ahead of the same players as Stefan, excepting the Sedins.
Why Was He Taken 4th?
In the season prior to the draft, Brendl scored 180 points in 88 games, in the WHL.
Is There a Lesson Here?
I don’t think so. Sometimes things just don’t work out. Or sometimes there’s a perfect storm in an amateur or semi-pro league somewhere and things just click for a while. (Hell, that even happens in the NHL.)
No idea what happened here. A man scores 180 points in the WHL in the late ’90s, you’d think he could make the NHL.
Rick DiPietro, G, #1 2000 – Islanders
Why He’s a Bust
- DiPietro is 40th in games (in the draft), 3rd in wins, losses, and others, 5th in save percentage, 5th in GAA (out of 6 goalies from the draft to play regularly)
- DiPietro was drafted immediately ahead of Dany Heatley and Marian Gaborik. Other notable players drafted below DiPietro:
- Hartnell (6th),
- Orpik (18th),
- Justin Williams (28th),
- Nick Schultz (33rd),
- Bryzgalov (44th),
- Vermette (55th),
- Visnovsky (118th),
- Cechmanek (171st),
- Lundqvist (205th).
Why Was He Taken 1st?
The Islanders had the #1 pick. Mike Millbury, perhaps the worst GM in North American professional sports history, drafted him.
Is There a Lesson Here?
Given that it was Milbury who drafted him, probably not.
But the obvious lesson to me is that don’t expect save percentages to translate form college to the NHL. His college save percentage of .913 isn’t even out of this world…
Alexander Svitov, C, #3 2001 – Lightning
Why He’s a Bust
- Svitov is 64th in games, 55th in goals, 57th in assists, 58th in points.
- 82-game average: 6G, 11A for 17G, -10
- Svitov was drafted immediately ahead of Stephen Weiss. Svitov was drafted above these notable players:
- Mikko Koivu (6th),
- Hamhuis (12th),
- Hemsky (13th),
- Derek Roy (32nd),
- Cammalleri (49th),
- Pominville (55th),
- McClement (57th),
- Plekanec (71st),
- Sharp (95th),
- Ehrhoff (106th),
- Zidlicky (176th).
Why Was He Taken 3rd?
Svitov scored 6 points with 45 PIM in 18 games with the Russian Elite League, and 22 points in 14 games two levels below that. One can only guess that it was the PIM that contributed to the ranking.
Is There a Lesson?
Yup, PIM are responsible for a player being overrated yet again.
Stanislav Chistov, LW, #5 2001 – Ducks
Why He’s a Bust?
- Chistov is 62nd in games, 48th in goals, assists and points.
- 82-game average: 8G, 17A for 25P, -8.
- Chistov was drafted above the same players as Svitov, save Weiss.
Why Was He Taken 5th?
Prior to the draft, Chistov was a PPG player in the Russian Elite League, which was something for his age.
Is There a Lesson?
Well, for one thing Chistov had to serve in the Russian military prior to defecting, so we can assume that drafting Russians at this time was risky.
But again I think we can express concerns about attempting to translate numbers from one league to another. Even though being a PPG player in the Russian Elite League is something to write home about, especially for his age.
Cam Barker, D, #3 2004 – Blackhawks
Why He’s a Bust
- Barker is 41st in games, 43rd goals, 30th in assists, 33rd in points.
- 82-game average: 17:06 ATOI; 6G, 20A for 25P, -8
- Barker was drafted immediately ahead of Andrew Ladd and Blake Wheeler. Other notable players drafted below Barker:
- Smid (9th),
- Stafford (13th),
- Zajac (20th),
- Meszaros (23rd),
- Mike Green (29th),
- Booth (53rd),
- Krejci (63rd),
- Franzen (97th),
- Callahan (127th),
- Versteeg (134th),
- Grabovski (150th),
- Brouwer (214th),
- Streit (262nd).
Why Was He Taken 3rd?
Barker scored 65 points in 69 WHL games the season prior to the draft, adding 105 PIM.
Is there a Lesson?
Well Barker’s career was partially derailed by injury, which cannot be predicted.
However, we have those ridiculous PIM again.
Busts?
Owen Nolan, RW, #1 overall, 1990 – Nordiques
Is He a Bust?
Nolan had a pretty great career but he was not the best player in the draft and a number of players drafted below him had longer and/or better careers. When drafting in the #1 spot, you want the very best player which, in this case, was Jagr.
- Nolan is 6th in games, 4th in goals, 7th in assists, 5th in points.
- 82 game average: 29G, 32A for 61P, -3
- Nolan was drafted immediately ahead of Peter Nedved, Keith Primeau, Mike Ricci and Jaromir Jagr. Other notable players drafted below him:
- Sydor (7th),
- Tkachuk (19th),
- Brodeur (20th),
- Weight (34th),
- Slava Kozlov (45th),
- Zhamnov (77th),
- Zubov (85th),
- Bondra (156th).
Why Was He Taken 1st?
In the season prior to the draft Nolan scored 123 points in 64 games, and added 266 PIM.
Is There a Lesson?
It’s hard to blame a team for getting excited about nearly 2 points per game in the OHL, but again it appears as though Nolan’s PIM were given too much weight.
Rob Niedermayer, C, #5 1993 – Panthers
Is He a Bust?
Niedermayer had a decent career, but that’s not exactly what you want from the 5th overall pick.
- Niedermayer is 5th in games but 16th in goals, 18th in assists, 19th in points.
- 82-game average: 13G, 21A for 34P, -9
- Niedermayer was drafted immediately ahead of Viktor Kozlov and Jason Arnott. And he was drafted ahead of the same players Gratton was, excepting Kariya.
Why Was He Taken 5th?
Niedermayer only put up 77 points in 52 WHL games the season prior to the draft, so it was probably the infamous “Bloodlines!”
Is There a Lesson Here?
Yes, don’t draft a prospect’s brother just because he’s his brother. Goll.
Oleg Tverdovsky, D, #2 1994 – Ducks
Is He a Bust?
Tverdovsky briefly played as a #1 D in the NHL – albeit not exactly typical #1 minutes, usually around 22 a game – and was even given some Norris votes in three separate seasons. And he was part of a pretty weak draft, where the best player was taken 133rd overall. But he did not become a franchise player.
- Tverdovsky is 25th in games, 26th in goals, 13th in assists, 15th in points.
- 82-game average: 9G, 28A for 36P, -2; 20:31 ATOI
- Tverdovsky was drafted immediately ahead of Radek Bonk. Other notable players drafted below Tverdovsky were also drafted below Bonsignore.
Why Was He Taken 2nd?
Nicknamed “Oleg Orr,” Tverdovsky was the best skating Russian D to enter the NHL to date according to some.
Is There a Lesson?
Sometimes it’s hard to translate play from one league to another. Tverdovsky had the most points of any D on his Russian team in 1993-94 but that clearly didn’t result in great offensive numbers in the NHL.
Radek Bonk, C, #3 1994 – Senators
Is He a Bust?
Bonk actually received a good deal of Selke votes over his career, but otherwise his numbers are not what you would expect from a Top 3 pick.
- Bonk is 8th in games, 12th in goals, 8th in assists, 10th in points.
- 82-game average: 16G, 25A for 42P, -2
- Bonk was drafted ahead of the same players as Tverdovsky and Bonsignore.
Why Was He Taken 3rd?
Bonk scored 87 points in 76 games in the now-defunct IHL, adding 208 PIM, the season prior to the draft.
Is There a Lesson?
- Don’t value PIM!
- Don’t trust IHL numbers! (see Stefan)
Bryan Berard, D, #1 1995 – Senators
Is He a Bust?
Though Berard might have played longer had he not been horrifically injured, remember that injury occurred in 2000. Berard was a bottom pair D on that Leafs team when he got injured. He had been played much more on weaker teams and the Conference Final Leafs of 1999, but he saw his minutes drop drastically during those playoffs.
I only mention this because some people may be critical of me claiming a guy who suffered a terrible eye injury was “a bust.” My point is that he wasn’t necessarily a star when it happened, though he was still very young.
- Berard is 20th in games, 18th in goals, 12th in assists and points.
- 82-game average: 10G, 33A for 43P, -13; 20:49 ATOI
- Berard was drafted immediately ahead of Wade Redden. Other than Redden, Berard was drafted above the same players as Berg and Kilger.
Why Was He Taken 1st?
Berard scored 75 points in 58 OHL games, with 97 PIM in the season prior to the draft.
Is There a Lesson Here?
Don’t over-value PIM?
Raffi Torres, LW, #5 2000 – Islanders
Is He a Bust?
- Torres is 17th in games, 8th in goals, 19th in assists, 14th in points.
- 82-game average: 18G, 16A for 34P, 0
- Torres was drafted above the same players as DiPietro, save Heatley and Gaborik.
Why Was He Taken 5th?
91 PIM in 68 OHL games in the season prior to the draft.
Is There a Lesson Here?
As always, PIM are no way of evaluating a player.
Nikolai Zherdev, W, #4 2003 – Blue Jackets
Is He a bust?
Zherdev might have had a decent NHL career, but jumped to the KHL so we’ll never know. Still, before he left, he was hardly a star player.
- Zherdev is 37th in games, 21st in goals, 26th in assists, 25th in points.
- 82-game average: 22G, 29A for 51P
- Zherdev was drafted immediately ahead of Thomas Vanek, Milan Michalek and Ryan Suter. Other notable players drafted below Zherdev:
- Phaneuf (9th),
- Jeff Carter (11th),
- Dustin Brown (13th),
- Seabrook (14th),
- Zach Parise (17th),
- Getzlaf (19th),
- Brent Burns (20th),
- Kesler (23rd),
- Mike Richards (24th),
- Perry (28th),
- Loui Eriksson (31st),
- Patrice Bergeron (45th),
- Carle (47th),
- Shea Weber (49th),
- Backes (62nd),
- Stempniak (148th),
- Pavelski (205th).
Why Was He Taken 4th?
Doug MacLean, one of my favourite bad NHL GMs, claimed the Jackets had Zherdev ranked #1 on their board. That’s right; ahead of Eric Staal. Oops.
Is There a Lesson Here?
It’s tough to know.
Here’s the thing: Zherdev had a decent career until he left the NHL for KHL. Obviously the KHL presents a nearly WHA-sized wrinkle for contract negotiations, but what does that mean for the draft? (I mean, Zherdev isn’t even Russian.)
Benoit Pouliot, LW, #4 2005 – Wild
Is He a Bust?
- Pouliot is 21 games, 13th in goals, 23rd in assists, 19th in points.
- 82-game average: 16G, 19A for 35P, +10
- Pouliot was drafted immediately ahead of Carey Price. Other notable players drafted below Pouliot:
- Setoguchi (8th),
- Kopitar (11th),
- Marc Staal (12th),
- Oshie (24th),
- Cogliano (25th),
- Niskanen (28th),
- Neal (33rd),
- Vlasic (35th),
- Paul Stastny (44th),
- Letang (62nd),
- Yandle (105th),
- Hornqvist (230th).
Why Was He Taken 4th?
102 PIM in 67 OHL games the season before the draft.
Is There a Lesson Here?
Yes: drafting a player because of his PIM over a player who is scary because he is the “First Slovenian to be drafted into the NHL” is about as stupid as it gets.
Erik Johnson, D, #1 2006 – Blues
Is He a Bust?
Johnson looked like an absolute bust a few seasons ago, but he is playing increased minutes now and he is still only 26. Unfortunately, his status as a bust is still sort of out. I think he might be the next Roman Hamrlik, but Hamrlik had a pretty great career, despite never living up to his status as a #1.
- Johnson is 13th in games, 25th in goals, 10th in assists, 16th in points.
- 82-game average: 21:17 ATOI; 7G, 27A for 34P, -5
- Johnson was drafted immediately ahead of Jordan Staal, Jonathan Toews, Nicklas Backstrom and Phil Kessel. Other notable players drafted below Johnson:
- Brassard (6th),
- Okposo (7th),
- Little (12th),
- Stewart (18th),
- Giroux (22nd),
- Berglund (25th),
- Nick Foligno (28th),
- Lucic (50th).
Why Was He Taken 1st?
Johnson scored 49 points in 47 games for the US Development National Team the season before the draft.
Is There a Lesson Here?
There is definitely more risk of taking a D over a forward. But Johnson was supposed to be the next great D. I think the lesson here is that we still haven’t quite figured out how to project D like we do forwards.
Kyle Turris, C, #3 2007 – Coyotes
Is He a Bust?
- Turris is 11th in games and goals, 12th in assists, 11th in points.
- 82-game average: 18G, 24A for 42P, +5
- Turris was drafted immediately ahead of Thomas Hickey – who is not on this list because his career was derailed by an injury post-draft – Karl Alzner, Sam Gagner and Jakub Voracek. Other notable players drafted below Hickey:
- Couture (9th),
- Brandon Sutter (11th),
- Shattenkirk (14th),
- Voracek (7th),
- Pacioretty
(22nd), - Perron (26th),
- Subban (43rd),
- Simmonds (61st),
- Benn (129th).
Why Was He Taken 3rd?
Turris scored 147 points in 67 games, but in the BCHL (i.e. the level below Major Junior). He was in this league in order to keep his eligibility for US College. He was considered the best Canadian prospect in the draft.
Is There a Lesson Here?
Absolutely: Junior A is not Major Junior and that’s not changing any time soon. Scouts watching Turris dominate Junior A should have been slapped in the face with “This is not the WHL” over and over again until they came to their senses.
Brayden Schenn, C, #5 2009 – Kings
Is He a Bust?
Despite looking like a world beater at the 2011 WJCs – 18 points in 7 games – Schenn has so far failed to live up to the hype and is actually making the Richards trade look intelligent.
- Schenn is 14th in games, 8th in goals, 12th in assists, 12th in points.
- 82-game average: 17G, 20A for 37P, -7
- Schenn was drafted immediately ahead of Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Nazem Kadri. Other notable players drafted below Schenn:
- Kulikov (14th),
- Leddy (16th),
- Marcus Johansson (24th),
- O’Reilly (33rd),
- Clifford (35th),
- Craig Smith (98th).
Why He Was Taken 5th
Schenn scored 106 points in 82 games in the WHL during the season prior to the draft.
Is There a Lesson Here?
I don’t know. I was among those who thought Schenn was a can’t miss prospect – not that I’m a scout or anything – and I have been absolutely shocked by how he has failed to dominate. I honestly thought he was going to light up the NHL.
Lessons
PIM Indicate Violations of the Rules, Not Talent
Unless you know that every single penalty a player took was a roughing call or cross-check or some other “gritty” penalty, it’s hard to see how PIM indicate “grit” or some kind of ability to dominate physically. In fact, one might want to draft a player who forces other players to commit PIM instead.
You know, if one were intelligent about it.
Numbers Don’t Translate
You can’t just look at a player’s numbers in one league and decide he will dominate in the NHL. Hell, you can’t even watch the guy and decide that, because the competition may not be so good.
When in doubt, draft the player from the CHL.
Sample Size
Some leagues’ seasons are pretty short and don’t give you a good sense of a player. Tournaments are worse.
If You Don’t Know a Player, Don’t Draft Him
If there isn’t enough information about a player, that’s probably a bad thing. Don’t take someone else’s word for it.
Only Draft a D If You Are Willing to Develop Him
Sometimes “can’t miss” defensemen are actually projects and require the right environment, or many years, to learn the NHL game.
Injuries Happen
Nothing can be done about that. But if the player is already repeatedly injured, you might want to stay away.
Drafting Players Out of Minor Pro Leagues Can Be Dangerous
Two busts here from the defunct IHL. Multiple ones from the European elite leagues. Sometimes there is a tendency to overvalue players playing “against men” at a young age.
Don’t Draft Players from Lower Leagues If You Can Avoid It
Seriously, don’t draft players from Junior A just because it’s a weak draft year. Or at least wait a round.
I’m sure I’ve missed the odd lesson. Do you see any?