2012, Basketball, Sports

Howard Trade

Putting Howard’s ridiculous, childish behaviour (which perhaps only seems so childish because it has been amplified by our new “social media” technology) which caused this trade, I want to try to think about it from a purely practical perspective.

 

Denver gets: Andre Iguodala (from Philly)

Iguodala: 28, SG/SF:

  • 37.7 MPG;
  • 14.6 PP36, 5.6 RP36, 4.6 AP36, 1.7 SP36, .5 BP36, 2.3TP36;
  • 17.1 PER, .554 TS%, .127 WS/48;
  • candidate for Defensive Player of the Year last year;
  • signed through 2014.

 

Conclusion:

I like this for Denver. Sure, they gave up a lot, but they got one of the two or three best wing defenders in the league who really fits their team. I think they are going to be fun to watch (like I will actually see them play…) and I think they would be in a really good position to contend, were they not in the division they are in.

 

LA gets: Earl Clark (Orlando), Chris Duhon (Orlando), Dwight Howard (from Orlando)

  • Clark, 24, PF:
    • 10.2 MPG;
    • 10.9 PP36, 7.3 RP36, 1.2 AP36, .7 SP36, 1.6 BP36, 1.9 TP36;
    • 8.9 PER, .428 TS%, .012 WS/48;
    • signed through 2013
  • Duhon, 29, PG:
    • 26.3 PG; 9.3 PP36, 3.2 RP36, 6.3 AP36, 1.1 SP36, .1 BP36, 2.2 TP36;
    • 10.9 PER, .523 TS%, .079 WS/48;
    • signed through 2014
  • Howard, 26, C:
    • 36.2 MPG;
    • 18.3 PP36, 12.9 RP36, 1.5 AP36, 1 SP36, 2.2 BP36, 3.1 TP36;
    • 22.5 PER, .601TS%,  .187 WS/48;
    • Defensive Player of the Year 3 times;
    • needs to be re-signed

 

Conclusion:

This trade has nothing to do with Clark and Duhon. Clark might actually be okay (tough to project when he only plays a quarter of the time though) but Duhon isn’t much of anything. The third PG on the Lakers? Maybe.

So really the Lakers just upgrade at centre and don’t give up very much to do so. They are definitely a favourite in the west now and, provided they have the chemistry, could be very tough to beat. They obviously win this hands down, but if Howard doesn’t re-sign it might have been less smart than it now appears.

 

Orlando gets: Arron Afflalo (from Denver), Moe Harkless (from Philly), Al Harrington (from Denver), Nikola Vucevic (from Philly), and one 1st rounder each from Denver, LA and Philly

  • Afflalo, 26, SG:
    • 24.4 MPG, 12.9 PP36, 4 RP36, 2.2 AP36, .7 SP36, .4 BP36, 1.3 TP36;
    • 12.1 PER, .578 TS%, .105 WS/48;
    • signed through 2015
  • Harkless, 19, SF:
    • 15th overall pick 2012
  • Harrington, 32, PF:
    • 29.2 MPG; 17 PP36, 7.1 RP36, 2.1 AP36, 1.1 SP36, .3 BP36, 2.4 TP36;
    • 14.4 PER, .524 TS%, .074 WS/48;
    • signed through 2015
  • Vucevic, 21, PF:
    • 15.9MPG; 12.5 PP36, 10.9 RP36, 1.4 AP36, .9 SP36, 1.5 BP36, 1.5 TP36;
    • 14.3 PER, .462 TS%, .109 WS/48
  • By the way:
    • Denver’s highest draft pick in the last 5 years has been 20th
    • LA’s highest draft pick in the last 5 years has been 29th
    • Philly’s highest draft pick in the last 5 years has been 2nd

 

Conclusion:

Orlando appears to have been absolutely killed on this.

  • Afflalo is a backup at this point. He is a good backup and he is valuable for good teams, but it’s hard to defend a trade where he is the centrepiece.
  • Harkless could make this trade less bad if he becomes a starter. Will he?
  • Harrington is too old and will only get worse (one must assume, given the NBA and Harrington’s age).
  • Vucevic needs to become a starter very soon for Orlando to have any chance at all.
  • The three draft picks will all be very low unless something goes horribly wrong for the other teams (and it certainly could in LA).

Orlando looks like they are planning on shooting for the #1 pick next summer, seriously.

 

Philadelphia gets: Andrew Bynum (from LA) and Jason Richardson (from Orlando)

  • Bynum, 24, C:
    • 26 MPG, 16.3 PP36, 10.9 RP36, 1.6 AP36, .4 SP36, 2.2 BP36, 2.2 TP36;
    • 19.8 PER, .6 TS%, .174 WS/48
    • needs to be re-signed
  • Richardson, 31, SG:
    • 34.6 MPG; 18.2 PP36, 5.2 RP36, 2.8 AP36, 1.2 SP36, .5 BP36, 1.9 TP36;
    • 16.5 PER, .53 TS%, .099 WS/48;
    • signed through 2014

 

Conclusion:

Philly greatly improves at centre and gets perhaps a sixth man (depending on how the roster works out). Bynum is now the best centre in the East and, provided he matures a little, it makes them significantly better.

But don’t take my word for it.

2017 Update: Was I ever wrong about this trade.

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